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Key findings of the IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report (official slide show)

November 7, 2014 6:29 am0 comments

Journalist’s note (MQ): Below are the slides from the IPCC’s power point presentation (available for download) on the key findings of the IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report. The material is being republished here under fair use for educational purposes. 

Slide show, IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report 2014.

Key Messages from IPCC AR5: Human influence on the climate system is clear; The more we disrupt our climate, the more we risk severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts; We have the means to limit climate change and build a more prosperous, sustainable future.

Humans are changing the climate: It is extremely likely that we are the dominant cause of warming since the mid-20th century.

Temperatures continue to rise: Each of the past 3 decades has been successively warmer than the preceding decades since 1850.

Oceans absorb most of the heat, IPCC AR5 SYR.

GHG emissions growth between 2000 and 2010 has been larger than in the previous three decades. IPCC AR5 SYR.

Sources of emissions: Energy sector 35%; Agriculture, forests and other land uses 24%; Industry 21%; Transport 14%; and 6.4% Building sector.

Globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature anomaly, IPCC AR5 SYR.

Globally average sea level change.

Globally averaged greenhouse gas concentrations. Carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O).

Global anthropogenic CO2 emissions: Fossil fuels, cement, and flaring; and forestry and other land use.

Changes in climate.

Some of the changes in extreme weather and climate events observed since 1950 linked to human influence.

Impacts are already underway: Tropics to the poles; On all continents and in the ocean; Affecting rich and poor countries.

Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and changes in the climate system: Oceans will continue to warm during the 21st century; Global mean sea level will continue to rise during the 21st century; It is very likely that the Arctic sea ice cover will continue to shrink and thin as global mean surface temperature rises; Global glacier volume will further decrease.

Potential impacts of climate change: Food and water shortages; Increased displacement of people; Increased poverty; and Coastal flooding.

The window for action is rapidly closing: 65% of our carbon budget compatible with a 2°C goal already used. IPCC AR5 SYR.

Climate change poses risk for food production.

Stabilization of atmospheric concentrations requires moving away from the baseline - regardless of mitigation goal. Full AR5 Database Range and Baseline Range out to 2100.

Stabilization of atmospheric concentrations requires moving away from the baseline - regardless of mitigation goal. Baseline Range; 3 degrees C range; 2 degrees C range.

Risks from climate change depend on cumulative CO2 emissions which in turn depend on annual GHG emissions over the next decades.

Measures exist to achieve the substantial emissions reductions required to limit likely warming to 2°C; A combination of adaptation and substantial, sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions can limit climate change risks; Implementing reductions in greenhouse gas emissions poses substantial technological, economic, social, and institutional challenges; But delaying mitigation will substantially increase the challenges associated with limiting warming to 2°C.

Mitigation measures: More efficient use of energy; Greater use of low-carbon and no-carbon energy (many of these technologies exist today); Improved carbon sinks (e.g., reduced deforestation and improved forest management and planting of new forests; bio-energy with carbon capture and storage); Lifestyle and behavioural changes.

Ambitious mitigation is affordable. Economic growth reduced by ~ 0.06% (BAU growth 1.6 - 3%). This translates into delayed and not forgone growth. Estimated cost does not account for the benefits of reduced climate change. Unmitigated climate change would create increasing risks to economic growth.

The choices we make will create different outcomes: Change in average surface temperature (1986–2005 to 2081–2100) with substantial mitigation compared to change without additional mitigation.

End of Synthesis Report slide show, IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, November 2014.



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