Worst Case Scenario v. Fat Tail

April 18, 2014 11:05 pm3 comments
Graphic by Michael Quirke.

“If we omit discussion of tail risk, are we really telling the whole truth?”  -Kerry Emanuel This post is motivated by Kerry Emanuel’s recent essay entitled Tail Risk vs. Alarmism. Excerpts: In assessing the event risk component of climate change, we have, I would argue, a strong professional obligation to estimate […]

Read more ›

Yale Climate Connections: “On New IPCC Report, Views of the WSJ Differ Greatly from Those of Other Dailies.” [General Commentary]

April 14, 2014 2:52 am1 comment
Yale Climate Connections: “On New IPCC Report, Views of the WSJ Differ Greatly from Those of Other Dailies.” [General Commentary]

Summary of initial comments [updated 4/28/14]: Dr. Andreas Schmittner: “I’ve seen worse misinformation regarding climate change coming out of WSJ than that.”   On New IPCC Report, Views of the WSJ Differ Greatly from Those of Other Dailies Now that it has been almost 3 weeks since the release of the […]

Read more ›

Tail Risk vs. Alarmism

March 31, 2014 7:46 pm6 comments
Tail Risk vs. Alarmism

The American Association for the Advancement of Science just published a statement on climate risk (link) on which I am a co-author. This statement has several aims, one of which is to highlight the importance of societal risk in the low-probability tail of the climate change probability distribution. I would […]

Read more ›

Do we understand the atmosphere enough to identify problems and solve them? Heck yes, we are two-for-two!

March 10, 2014 2:50 pm2 comments
Do we understand the atmosphere enough to identify problems and solve them? Heck yes, we are two-for-two!

Whenever I am asked the question of how well we understand the atmosphere that is being changed by the addition of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, I often find it useful to look at the scientific history of two other recent atmospheric pollution challenges: acid rain and stratospheric ozone […]

Read more ›

J. Christy, R. McNider & R. Spencer trying to overturn mainstream science by rewriting history, knowingly spreading falsehoods and re-baselining graphs.

February 22, 2014 9:13 pm0 comments
Galileo Galilei

Who are the Flat Earthers? Before the advent of modern climatology, common wisdom had it that we tiny humans couldn’t possibly influence climate. Modern science shows we can. Yet John Christy and Richard McNider claim the exact opposite in a recent WSJ op-ed, in which they claim that their outdated […]

Read more ›

Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Oregon): Carbon pollution is “assaulting” Oregon’s agriculture, fishing, oyster, and timber industries; western forests of U.S. in great peril. [For fact checking & general commentary]

January 28, 2014 5:31 pm3 comments
Senator Jeff Merkley (D-Oregon)

POSTED FOR COMMENTARY BY SCIENTISTS The following statements are from Senator Jeff Merkley (R-Oregon) during the U.S. Senate Committee on Environment and Public Work’s hearing titled “Review of the President’s Climate Action Plan.” The hearing was held on January 16, 2014.  The statements start at 32:30. Senator Jeff Merkley (D-Oregon) No matter […]

Read more ›

FOX News Radio host Brian Kilmeade suggests only “corrupt” climate scientists believe in consensus global warming theory and asks “how [else] do they make their living?” [For general commentary]

January 13, 2014 6:45 pm4 comments
Fox News Host Brian Kilmeade

POSTED FOR COMMENTARY BY SCIENTISTS: Caller: “So you don’t believe in the scientists, the 98% of the climatologists that said that…?” Host Brian Kilmeade:  “You mean the corrupt ones? You mean the corrupt ones who admit they screwed up — they skewed — their findings?” Caller:  “[..] [R]ead my lips, […]

Read more ›

The Public Debate on Climate Change

January 9, 2014 9:02 pm1 comment
Socrates in "The School of Athens" by Raphael.

The physical complexity of global climate is evident. However, resolving the issue of global warming is also socially and politically complex. It is not an isolated problem with an easy solution, since almost every human action requires energy and/or land use (and thus results in climate altering emissions). In contrast, […]

Read more ›

Gavin Schmidt & Judith Curry on Science Advocacy

January 6, 2014 5:40 am0 comments
Gavin Schmidt & Judith Curry on Science Advocacy

Gavin gave a fantastic talk at this year’s AGU conference about science advocacy (good report on it by Yale CMForum and Dot Earth). The video is available via the AGU youtube channel: He argued that it’s best to be explicit about one’s values and clearly distinguish when one is talking […]

Read more ›

A Glacier that did not Survive by Mauri Pelto

January 2, 2014 9:08 pm0 comments
Dr. Mauri Pelto

The rain had poured down us all day, finally at 4 pm it relented.  We left the tent with a rush and headed over the ridge from Pumice Creek to visit Milk Lake Glacier.  To our surprise the glacier pictured on the map was nearly gone.  It was August, 9th […]

Read more ›