Worst Case Scenario v. Fat Tail

April 18, 2014 11:05 pm3 comments
Graphic by Michael Quirke.

“If we omit discussion of tail risk, are we really telling the whole truth?”  -Kerry Emanuel This post is motivated by Kerry Emanuel’s recent essay entitled Tail Risk vs. Alarmism. Excerpts: In assessing the event risk component of climate change, we have, I would argue, a strong professional obligation to estimate […]

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Pliocene Perils and Global Warming Scare Tactics

April 9, 2014 4:37 pm5 comments
Pliocene Perils and Global Warming Scare Tactics

Renowned climate scientist Dr. Maureen Raymo claims in this video that global warming will “almost certainly lead to the collapse of ecosystems” (1:41) and that “historically…  the climate [science] community has always underestimated the rate of change in the climate system” (3:19). I deeply respect Dr. Raymo for her excellent paleoclimate […]

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Tail Risk vs. Alarmism

March 31, 2014 7:46 pm6 comments
Tail Risk vs. Alarmism

The American Association for the Advancement of Science just published a statement on climate risk (link) on which I am a co-author. This statement has several aims, one of which is to highlight the importance of societal risk in the low-probability tail of the climate change probability distribution. I would […]

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Dr. Neil deGrasse Tyson in Cosmos: “As these ancient forests grew and died […] their remains transformed into coal. 300M years later, we humans are burning that coal to power – and imperil – our civilization.” [Fact Checking]

March 20, 2014 7:22 am1 comment
Dr. Neil deGrasse Tyson in Cosmos:  “As these ancient forests grew and died […] their remains transformed into coal. 300M years later, we humans are burning that coal to power – and imperil – our civilization.” [Fact Checking]

POSTED FOR COMMENTARY BY THE CCNF SCIENTIST COMMUNITY “As these ancient forests grew and died and sank beneath the surface, their remains transformed into coal. Three hundred million years later, we humans are burning that coal to power — and imperil — our civilization.” — Dr. Neil Degrasse Tyson. Credit: “Standing […]

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Nate Cohn in New Republic: Last decade warmest on record and hiatus due to “laundry-list of mitigating factors like a prolonged La Nina, […] modest volcanic activity, and ebb in solar activity.” [For general commentary]

7:17 am0 comments
New Republic: "Explaining the Global Warming  Hiatus," by Nate Cohn

POSTED FOR COMMENTARY BY THE CCNF SCIENTIST COMMUNITY The following excerpts are from a fairly recent article in the New Republic, titled “Explaining the Global Warming Consensus — Grapping with climate change nuance in a toxic political environment,” by Nate Cohn. (Click on the previous link to read the full article […]

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Do we understand the atmosphere enough to identify problems and solve them? Heck yes, we are two-for-two!

March 10, 2014 2:50 pm2 comments
Do we understand the atmosphere enough to identify problems and solve them? Heck yes, we are two-for-two!

Whenever I am asked the question of how well we understand the atmosphere that is being changed by the addition of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, I often find it useful to look at the scientific history of two other recent atmospheric pollution challenges: acid rain and stratospheric ozone […]

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Climate Change Discussion in Houston

February 26, 2014 4:40 pm4 comments
Climate Change Discussion in Houston

The self proclaimed “Energy Capital of the World” hosted a climate change event last week.   On Tuesday February 11th, more than 300 students, faculty, industry leaders, and members of general public participated in a hosted climate change discussion at the University of Houston (UH).  The event was the third part […]

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J. Christy, R. McNider & R. Spencer trying to overturn mainstream science by rewriting history, knowingly spreading falsehoods and re-baselining graphs.

February 22, 2014 9:13 pm0 comments
Galileo Galilei

Who are the Flat Earthers? Before the advent of modern climatology, common wisdom had it that we tiny humans couldn’t possibly influence climate. Modern science shows we can. Yet John Christy and Richard McNider claim the exact opposite in a recent WSJ op-ed, in which they claim that their outdated […]

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My Fab Four Up-to-Date Climate Change Observations

February 13, 2014 5:35 am1 comment
My Fab Four Up-to-Date Climate Change Observations

Here are a few links to web sites that contain up-to-date crucial observations. In my opinion one of the most important is ocean heat content. The reason is simple. The ocean’s heat capacity is enormous. It takes up almost all of the additional heat the Earth accumulated in the last […]

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New layer on GoogleEarth showing temperature changes across the world, some as far back as 1850 (data from CRUTEM4 dataset compiled by the Univ. of East Anglia CRU). [General Commentary]

February 11, 2014 3:57 am0 comments
New layer on GoogleEarth showing temperature changes across the world, some as far back as 1850 (data from CRUTEM4 dataset compiled by the Univ. of East Anglia CRU). [General Commentary]

POSTED FOR COMMENTARY BY SCIENTISTS Google Earth has recently released a new layer featuring temperature anomaly graphs showing observed temperature changes all over the world. According to The Guardian, the data is from the CRUTEM4 land dataset— “one of the most widely used records of the climate system” — and was complied by […]

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