How hot is it going to get and how fast? A chat with Scott Denning on climate sensitivity

July 30, 2014 5:09 pm0 comments
How hot is it going to get and how fast? A chat with Scott Denning on climate sensitivity

Climate sensitivity has become a regular topic of conversation in the Forum, and—as this layman has discovered—it is a central concept to understanding how the climate system works. Most importantly, through climate sensitivity you can get a scientist’s best answer to the million-dollar question of “How hot is it going to get?” […]

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FORUM REPORT 01

July 21, 2014 9:06 pm0 comments
FORUM REPORT 01

Foreword by Michel Quirke: In these Forum Reports, I will be doing my best to inform readers on who said what in Climate Change National Forum and why it matters. The CCNF scientists have published a lot of material in these last 7 months, so it might take around four Forum Reports to get caught up, […]

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National Climate Assessment: Climate change effects are already being felt across country, will grow more severe in time. “Climate change, once considered an issue for a distant future, has moved firmly into the present,” states the report’s introduction.

July 16, 2014 7:49 am0 comments
National Climate Assessment

Note by Michael Quirke: In case you missed it, the federal government released the National Climate Assessment (NCA) in May. The report concluded that man-made climate change is already impacting every region of the United States in negative ways. The CCNF journalism team had this write-up on the media coverage of the report a week after its release, and […]

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Science Magazine: “Outsider Finds Missing Global Warming” and NASA data sets “have underestimated the pace of warming between 1997 and 2012 by an estimated 158% and 49% respectively.” [Fact Checking]

May 5, 2014 5:25 am3 comments
Source: Cowtan and Way

Summary of initial comments (paraphrases and quotes): Dr. Andrew Dessler: “I really liked this article and I learned a few things — such as the fact that Cowtan and Way are not climate scientists, but are contributors to Skeptical Science.” Will add one point: “While I accept their adjustment, this does not […]

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Tail Risk vs. Alarmism

March 31, 2014 7:46 pm6 comments
Tail Risk vs. Alarmism

The American Association for the Advancement of Science just published a statement on climate risk (link) on which I am a co-author. This statement has several aims, one of which is to highlight the importance of societal risk in the low-probability tail of the climate change probability distribution. I would […]

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IPCC releases summary for policy makers on climate impacts, adaptation and vulnerability, accepts full final draft of second installment of AR5. [General Commentary]

6:45 pm0 comments
IPCC Volume II, Climate Change 2014, Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulberability, COVER

POSTED FOR COMMENTARY BY THE CCNF SCIENTIST COMMUNITY The long-awaited climate change impacts summary for policy makers (SPM) was released to the public today after gaining an official approval by the IPCC.  The final draft of the full report, titled Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, was formally accepted by […]

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AAAS: Earth’s climate on path to warm beyond anything experienced in “past millions of years”; action needed to lower costs & risks of catastrophic and irreversible impacts. [General Commentary]

March 20, 2014 7:32 am1 comment
AAAS: Earth’s climate on path to warm beyond anything experienced in “past millions of years”; action needed to lower costs & risks of catastrophic and irreversible impacts. [General Commentary]

POSTED FOR COMMENTARY BY THE CCNF SCIENTIST COMMUNITY The American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) — the world’s largest non-governmental and general scientific society and the executive publisher of the respected peer-reviewed journal Science — released a report on global warming on Tuesday.  The report, titled “What We Know,” is meant […]

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Cause & Effect

March 2, 2014 11:03 pm12 comments
Mount Pinatubo eruption, June 1991. From 'Cause and Effect' by Dr. Scott Denning. Source: Wikimedia commons.

Why are scientists so confident that a business as usual future based on fossil fuels will lead to major changes in the Earth’s climate?  Because we seek to understand climate in terms of cause and effect. A very common misconception about climate change is that projections of future warming are […]

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U.S. NAS and U.K. Royal Society: Atmos. CO2 has increased 40% since industrial revolution, climate has warmed 0.8°C since 1900 (most of which has occurred recently), substantial warming in store if GHG emissions continue unabated. [For fact checking or general commentary]

February 28, 2014 4:28 am1 comment
"Climate Change: Evidence & Causes," 2014 joint-publication by the U.S. National Academy of Sciences and Royal Society.

POSTED FOR COMMENTARY BY SCIENTISTS Today the U.S. National Academy of Sciences (NAS) and the Royal Society (RS) released a joint publication titled “Climate Change: Evidence & Causes.” The publication is around 30 pages in length and is highly readable (click on the image below for the full report in […]

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New layer on GoogleEarth showing temperature changes across the world, some as far back as 1850 (data from CRUTEM4 dataset compiled by the Univ. of East Anglia CRU). [General Commentary]

February 11, 2014 3:57 am0 comments
New layer on GoogleEarth showing temperature changes across the world, some as far back as 1850 (data from CRUTEM4 dataset compiled by the Univ. of East Anglia CRU). [General Commentary]

POSTED FOR COMMENTARY BY SCIENTISTS Google Earth has recently released a new layer featuring temperature anomaly graphs showing observed temperature changes all over the world. According to The Guardian, the data is from the CRUTEM4 land dataset— “one of the most widely used records of the climate system” — and was complied by […]

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