• Latest from the CCNF Community:

    • RECENT LESSONS FROM THE PAST
      Andreas Schmittner

      RECENT LESSONS FROM THE PAST

      Global surface temperature (anomaly from 1960-1990 average) reconstructions for the past 9000 years (Marcott et al. 2013), for the past 2,000 years (PAGES 2k), and observed for the past 150 years (Instrumental data from HadCRUT4) and the last 30 years (star). From Kaufman et al. (2013). Recently a german taxi driver asked me if climate hasn't been changing in the past with similar warm periods as the one we have now. After getting back home to Corvallis, Oregon, I read a letter to the editor of our local newspaper claiming that it was much warmer than... Continue Reading...

    • ClimateDialogue ABOUT CLIMATE SENSITIVITY
      Bart Verheggen

      ClimateDialogue ABOUT CLIMATE SENSITIVITY

      After a bit of “hiatus”, ClimateDialogue (CD) has re-opened again with a discussion on climate sensitivity. On one hand this site is unique in bringing together ‘mainstreamers’ and ‘contrarians’ (both in the organization and in the discussions), hopefully leading to both enhanced clarity on what the (dis)agreements are really about and to decreased polarization. On the other hand it’s controversial because a ‘false balance’ is embedded in its structure (by purposefully inviting contrarian scientists to the discussion, rather than e.g. randomly inviting experts). Whether the positives or negatives dominate is in the eye of the beholder (opinions about that vary... Continue Reading...

    • PINE ISLAND GLACIER HYPOTHESIS TO EMERGENT EVENT
      Mauri Pelto

      PINE ISLAND GLACIER HYPOTHESIS TO EMERGENT EVENT

      This Post is an update to one I wrote in 2009 for Realclimate. It is warranted given the increasing observations in papers by Rignot et al (2014), Favier et al (2014), and Mouginot et al (2014) that the Pine Island Glacier exiting into the Amundsen Sea in West Antarctica has entered a period of unstable retreat. Roald Amundsen won the race to the South Pole in 1911, the outlet glaciers in the sea named for him are winning the race back to the sea. In science there are instances when a specific mechanism is understood and a hypothesis posed based... Continue Reading...

    • WORST CASE SCENARIO vs. FAT TAIL
      Judith Curry

      WORST CASE SCENARIO vs. FAT TAIL

      "If we omit discussion of tail risk, are we really telling the whole truth?"  -Kerry Emanuel This post is motivated by Kerry Emanuel's recent essay entitled Tail Risk vs. Alarmism. Excerpts: In assessing the event risk component of climate change, we have, I would argue, a strong professional obligation to estimate and portray the entire probability distribution to the best of our ability. This means talking not just about the most probable middle of the distribution, but also the lower probability high-end risk tail, because the outcome function is very high there.  Do we not have a professional obligation to talk... Continue Reading...

    • FORUM REPORT 01
      Michael Quirke

      FORUM REPORT 01

      Foreword by Michel Quirke: In these Forum Reports, I will be doing my best to inform readers on who said what in Climate Change National Forum and why it matters. The CCNF scientists have published a lot of material in these last 7 months, so it might take around four Forum Reports to get caught up, but once we are up to date, I plan on publishing a new Forum Report every two-to-four weeks. OK, let's get started with a recap on all that we've learned thus far in Climate Change National Forum!  CLIMATE CHANGE NATIONAL FORUM (PHASE I) BEGINS! Climate Change National Forum officially started on January 1st 2014. The... Continue Reading...

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